Wright St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	99.0
Current RPI:	99
Expected SOS:	238
Current SOS:	238
Current Record:	23-9
Expected Record:	23-9
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-4
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	76
Expected OOC SOS:	49

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-9	99.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	84-80	L	0%
11-14	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	73-67	L	0%
11-18	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	61-80	L	0%
11-24	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	67-47	W	100%
11-25	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	68-44	W	100%
11-26	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	57-56	W	100%
12-2	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	78-60	L	0%
12-9	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	H	63-54	W	100%
12-16	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	69-77	W	100%
12-19	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	66-50	L	0%
12-22	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	81-85	W	100%
12-28	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	65-61	W	100%
12-30	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	60-52	W	100%
1-5	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	73-80	W	100%
1-7	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	81-86	W	100%
1-11	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	81-84	W	100%
1-15	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	77-67	W	100%
1-18	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	67-80	W	100%
1-20	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	66-61	L	0%
1-26	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	87-55	W	100%
1-28	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	64-51	W	100%
2-1	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	77-74	L	0%
2-3	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	57-83	W	100%
2-8	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	68-64	W	100%
2-10	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	73-74	L	0%
2-16	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	69-67	W	100%
2-19	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	72-63	W	100%
2-23	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	66-56	L	0%
2-25	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	81-88	W	100%
3-3	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	N	87-72	W	100%
3-5	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	N	59-53	W	100%
3-6	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	N	74-57	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wright St.	Horz	26.57	26.57	75.35	75.35	13.47	13.47
Cleveland St.	Horz	5.82	5.82	32.26	32.26	-2.07	-2.07
Milwaukee	Horz	5.71	5.71	46.43	46.43	-0.41	-0.41
Green Bay	Horz	5.66	5.66	37.04	37.04	-1.47	-1.47
Oakland	Horz	4.25	4.25	61.29	61.29	0.96	0.96
Detroit	Horz	4.22	4.22	21.43	21.43	-2.41	-2.41
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.19	4.19	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.19	4.19	21.43	21.43	-2.39	-2.39
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.16	4.16	74.07	74.07	2.00	2.00
IUPUI	Horz	4.13	4.13	30.77	30.77	-1.59	-1.59
Toledo	MAC	1.80	1.80	68.75	68.75	0.68	0.68
Kent St.	MAC	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.76	1.76	83.87	83.87	1.19	1.19
Jacksonville	ASun	1.69	1.69	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Miami OH	MAC	1.66	1.66	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Missouri St.	MVC	1.64	1.64	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	1.62	1.62	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Murray St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	82.14	82.14	1.04	1.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.59	1.59	68.75	68.75	0.60	0.60
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.56	1.56	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Western Michigan	MAC	0.37	0.37	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.33	0.33	36.67	36.67	-0.09	-0.09
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.24	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.23	0.23	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Akron	MAC	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	87.88	87.88	0.09	0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02